Friday, September 24, 2010

Regression with Student-t Errors

In order to fit a regression that assumes error is distributed as Student-t instead of Normal, Statsmodels' TLinearModel is the class to use. On R same thing is accomplished using the "hett" library tlm function. We share here R and Python sample code that uses same data to report results using both functions.

Hett library can be installed on R by using install.packages("hett"). TLinearModel is part of a development branch on Statsmodels, you can get it here:

https://code.launchpad.net/~scipystats/statsmodels/devel

test_tlm.py

import numpy as np
from scipy import stats, special, optimize
import scikits.statsmodels as sm
from scikits.statsmodels.miscmodels import TLinearModel

nobs = 60
nvars = 2
df = 3

mm = np.loadtxt("mm.dat",  skiprows=1, usecols = (3,4))

data_exog = mm[:,1]
data_endog = mm[:,0]

data_exog = sm.add_constant(data_exog)

res_ols = sm.OLS(data_endog, data_exog).fit()

kurt = stats.kurtosis(res_ols.resid)
df_fromkurt = 6./kurt + 4

modp = TLinearModel(data_endog, data_exog)

start_value = 0.1*np.ones(data_exog.shape[1]+2)

start_value[:nvars] = res_ols.params
start_value[-2] = df_fromkurt 
start_value[-1] = np.sqrt(res_ols.scale) #0.5
modp.start_params = start_value

fixdf = np.nan * np.zeros(modp.start_params.shape)
fixdf[-2] = 5

modp.fixed_params = fixdf
modp.fixed_paramsmask = np.isnan(fixdf)
modp.start_params = modp.start_params[modp.fixed_paramsmask]

resp = modp.fit(start_params = modp.start_params, disp=1, method='nm',
                maxfun=10000, maxiter=5000)

print '---------------------------'
print resp.bse
print resp.params


test_tlm.R

library("hett")
data(mm, package = "hett")
attach(mm)
# apparently second ~ CRSP is for skasdicity correction
# tfit2 <- crsp="" data="mm," estdof="TRUE)</font" m.marietta="" start="list(dof" tlm="">
tfit2 <- crsp="" data="mm," estdof="TRUE)</font" m.marietta="" start="list(dof" tlm="">
summary(tfit2)

#(Intercept) -0.006437   0.008096  -0.795     0.43    
#CRSP         1.206853   0.205935   5.860 2.31e-07 ***

mm.dat

"date" "am.can" "m.marietta" "CRSP"
"1" "Jan.1982" -0.0596 -0.1365 -0.03
"2" "Feb.1982" -0.17 -0.0769 -0.0584
"3" "Mar.1982" 0.0276 -0.0575 -0.0181
"4" "Apr.1982" 0.0058 0.0526 0.0306
"5" "May1982" -0.0106 -0.0449 -0.0397
"6" "June1982" 0.045 -0.0859 -0.0295
"7" "Jul.1982" -0.0243 -0.0742 -0.0316
"8" "Aug.1982" 0.1135 0.6879 0.1176
"9" "Sept.1982" -0.0331 -0.077 0.0075
"10" "Oct.1982" 0.0468 0.085 0.1098
"11" "Nov.1982" -0.0223 0.003 0.0408
"12" "Dec.1982" -0.0026 0.0754 0.0095
"13" "Jan.1983" 0.0166 -0.0412 0.0301
"14" "Feb.1983" 0.0343 -0.089 0.0221
"15" "Mar.1983" 0.0443 0.2319 0.0269
"16" "Apr.1983" 0.1477 0.1087 0.0655
"17" "May1983" 0.1728 0.0375 -0.003
"18" "June1983" -0.0372 0.0958 0.0325
"19" "July1983" -0.0451 0.0174 -0.0374
"20" "Aug.1983" -0.0257 -0.0724 0.0049
"21" "Sept.1983" 0.0509 0.075 0.0105
"22" "Oct.1983" 0.0035 -0.0588 -0.0257
"23" "Nov.1983" 0.1334 -0.062 0.0186
"24" "Dec.1983" -0.0458 -0.0378 -0.0155
"25" "Jan.1984" 0.1199 0.0169 -0.0165
"26" "Feb.1284" -0.0766 -0.0799 -0.044
"27" "Mar.1984" -0.0511 -0.0147 0.0094
"28" "Apr.1984" -0.0194 0.0106 -0.0028
"29" "May1984" -0.0687 -0.0421 -0.0591
"30" "June1984" 0.0928 -0.0036 0.0158
"31" "July1984" -0.0704 0.0876 -0.0238
"32" "Aug.1984" 0.0905 0.1025 0.1031
"33" "Sept.1984" 0.0232 -0.0499 -0.0065
"34" "Oct.1984" -0.0054 0.1953 -0.0067
"35" "Nov.1984" 0.0082 -0.0714 -0.0167
"36" "Dec.1984" 0.0242 0.0469 0.0188
"37" "Jan.1985" 0.0153 0.1311 0.0733
"38" "Feb.1985" 0.0016 0.0461 0.0105
"39" "Mar.1985" 0.028 -0.0328 -0.007
"40" "Apr.1985" 0.0088 -0.0096 -0.0099
"41" "May1985" 0.0734 0.1272 0.0521
"42" "June1985" 0.0315 -0.0077 0.0117
"43" "July1985" -0.0276 0.0165 -0.0099
"44" "Aug.1985" 0.0162 -0.015 -0.0102
"45" "Sept.1985" -0.0975 -0.1479 -0.0428
"46" "Oct.1985" 0.0563 -0.0065 0.0376
"47" "Nov.1985" 0.1368 0.039 0.0628
"48" "Dec.1985" -0.069 0.0223 0.0391
"49" "Jan.1986" 0.1044 -0.069 2e-04
"50" "Feb.1986" 0.1636 0.1338 0.0688
"51" "Mar.1986" -0.019 0.1458 0.0486
"52" "Apr.1986" -0.0746 0.0063 -0.0174
"53" "May1986" 0.0433 0.0692 0.046
"54" "June1986" 0.0306 -0.0239 0.01
"55" "July1986" 0.0636 -0.0568 -0.0594
"56" "Aug.1986" 0.0917 0.0814 0.068
"57" "Sept.1986" -0.0796 -0.0889 -0.0839
"58" "Oct.1986" 0.0778 -0.0887 0.0481
"59" "Nov.1986" -0.0353 0.1037 0.0136
"60" "Dec.1986" -0.0137 -0.1163 -0.0322

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